The use of QLARM to estimate seismic risk in Kirghizstan at the regional and city scales

Abstract

An analysis of seismic risk using our tool QLARM has been performed for the Batken region including the cities of Aidarken and Kadamjay, 100 km SW of Osh. The damage to residential buildings and induced casualties has been estimated for a set of seismic scenarios of typical and maximum magnitude considering the existing seismicity data. Population and building datasets have been built based on up-to-date information, and for the two cities, satellite photographs and a field survey have been used. A preliminary soil response zonation is proposed using seismic ambient noise analyses. In the investigated region, the probability of damaging earthquakes with M > 6 is judged to be low because the slip accumulation rate along individual faults is only in the range of 0.01–0.3 cm/year. The amplification of seismic waves by soil deposits is estimated to be low; however, the proposed zonation needs to be complemented by additional seismic measurements. The calculations indicate that the combined fatalities of Kadamjay and Aidarken in a hypothetical earthquake of magnitude between 6.0 and 6.6 are fewer than 100.