The Use of Model Output Statistics (MOS) in Objective Weather Forecasting

Abstract

Model Output Statistics (MOS) is an objective weather forecasting technique which consists of determining a statistical relationship between a predictand and variables forecast by a numerical model at some projection time(s). It is, in effect, the determination of the “weather related” statistics of a numerical model. This technique, together with screening regression, has been applied to the prediction of surface wind, probability of precipitation, maximum temperature, cloud amount, and conditional probability of frozen precipitation. Predictors used include surface observations at initial time and predictions from the Subsynoptic Advection Model (SAM) and the Primitive Equation model used operationally by the National Weather Service. Verification scores have been computed, and, where possible, compared to scores for forecasts from other objective techniques and for the official forecasts. MOS forecasts of surface wind, probability of precipitation, and conditional probability of frozen precipitation are being disseminated by the National Weather Service over teletype and facsimile. It is concluded that MOS is a useful technique in objective weather forecasting.