Abstract
BackgroundMany authors have claimed that snakebite risk is associated with human population density, human activities, and snake behavior. Here we analyzed whether environmental suitability of vipers can be used as an indicator of snakebite risk. We tested several hypotheses to explain snakebite incidence, through the construction of models incorporating both environmental suitability and socioeconomic variables in Veracruz, Mexico.Methodology/Principal FindingsEcological niche modeling (ENM) was used to estimate potential geographic and ecological distributions of nine viper species' in Veracruz. We calculated the distance to the species' niche centroid (DNC); this distance may be associated with a prediction of abundance. We found significant inverse relationships between snakebites and DNCs of common vipers (Crotalus simus and Bothrops asper), explaining respectively 15% and almost 35% of variation in snakebite incidence. Additionally, DNCs for these two vipers, in combination with marginalization of human populations, accounted for 76% of variation in incidence.Conclusions/SignificanceOur results suggest that niche modeling and niche-centroid distance approaches can be used to mapping distributions of environmental suitability for venomous snakes; combining this ecological information with socioeconomic factors may help with inferring potential risk areas for snakebites, since hospital data are often biased (especially when incidences are low).
Highlights
A small percentage (10–15%) of ca. 3000 known species’ of snakes is venomous, and potentially dangerous to humans [1]
Partial receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis exhibited high average area under the curve (AUC) ratios and low standard deviations for all models; according to this test, all were significantly better than random (Table 1)
Our results demonstrate that this can be done by mapping potential environmental suitability of vipers through the distance to the species’ niche centroid (DNC) approach [14,15]
Summary
A small percentage (10–15%) of ca. 3000 known species’ of snakes is venomous, and potentially dangerous to humans [1]. In the tropics, snakebites are a significant cause of human mortality and morbidity, with important impacts on human health, as well as to economy through treatment-related expenses and loss of productivity [2]. Despite the scale of effects on human populations, snakebites has not received much attention from national and international health authorities, and has been categorized as a ‘‘neglected tropical disease’’ [6]. Hansson et al [9] developed an index of potential underreported cases of snakebites using environmental, socioeconomics and health-care related variables, a valuable contribution towards a better understanding of snakebite incidence, but other aspects of the phenomenon may enrich the view, such as the specific identity, geographic distribution and abundance of venomous snakes involved in the incidents. Many authors have claimed that snakebite risk is associated with human population density, human activities, and snake behavior. We tested several hypotheses to explain snakebite incidence, through the construction of models incorporating both environmental suitability and socioeconomic variables in Veracruz, Mexico
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