The use of atmospheric analogues to predict Alberta Clipper storm trajectories in a changing global climate

Abstract

Alberta Clippers are extratropical cyclones that form in Alberta, Canada and move east-southeastward over the Great Plains and Midwest regions. With the onset of global climate change and the potential shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns, however, this defined storm trajectory could be modified. Since the affected regions support much of the national population and agricultural activity, the presence of the Alberta Clipper storm track influences regional climatological patterns.In this study, atmospheric analogues defined by global temperature and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) characteristics are used to compare the trajectories of past Alberta Clipper storms to hypothesize how these could change with global warming. The results indicate that, although the trajectory azimuths from t = 0 to t = 60 are similar between the analogues, starting latitude and longitude results show that, on average, Warm analogue storms form further to the north and east than La Niña analogue Clippers.