Abstract
China's nuclear threat perception, of which its nuclear weapons program is the by-product, is driven by the external strategic environment where the United States (US) is a key player. Chairman Mao Zedong, after the US nuclear intimidation during the Korean War and the Cross-Strait Crises, considered that nuclear weapons were central not only to deter their potential use against China but also to counter the nuclear threat. The geostrategic location of the country makes it vulnerable to a few nuclear powers. However, not all of these states constitute a key concern in Beijing's nuclear threat perception. In this regard, an analysis of the US nuclear weapons program and capabilities would help understand China's nuclear threat perception. The paper aims to explore the threat that China perceives from the US given the latter's growing focus against it, including through its nuclear arsenal. The study, after a brief historical background, begins with a cursory discussion on theoretical underpinnings for threat perception. The next section outlines the US nuclear weapon policy and capability that has a bearing on China's nuclear threat perception. The paper argues that with its intentions and excessive capability, the US is a primary actor in shaping China's nuclear threat perception and altering its long-standing nuclear weapons policy and modernization of its nuclear forces.
Highlights
According to The Science of Military Strategy (SMS) 2013, nuclear weapons have an essential role in achieving and sustaining China’s great power status
The 2018 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), under the Trump administration, takes an assertive stance towards ‘great power competition.’[27]. The NPR further emphasizes that ‘effective U.S deterrence of nuclear attack and nonnuclear strategic attack requires ensuring that potential adversaries do not miscalculate regarding the consequences of nuclear first use, either regionally or against the United States itself.’[28]. The NPR highlights new changes; nuclear weapons might be used in retaliation to a non-nuclear attack
The United States (US) has an overwhelming nuclear capability that can outrightly challenge China, and potentially eliminate its ability to deliver a credible second-strike against the former
Summary
According to The Science of Military Strategy (SMS) 2013, nuclear weapons have an essential role in achieving and sustaining China’s great power status. The 2013 SMS notes, ‘we must fully recognize that nuclear forces are not ensuring the status of great power to broadcast and safeguard national core interests without infringements and to create a peaceful and safe development environment.’[1] On December 31, 2015, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the restructuring of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). He termed the establishment of the PLA Army general command, the PLA Rocket Force (PLARF), formerly known as PLA Second Artillery Force (PLASAF), and the PLA Strategic Support Force. One can speculate that PLARF might gain command over China’s BMD system and counter-space force as both domains require and employ modified ballistic missiles
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