The Unprecedented Shortage of Births in Europe

Abstract

The unprecedented fertility decline in Europe during the last 20 years has provoked a stream of descriptive analysis in an effort to assess underlying causes as well as to detect any signs of an upswing in births. This analysis based on preliminary data for 1983 and 1984 suggests that even the few upswings in births that appear in measures of the total fertility rate have been of short duration. The decline in nuptiality and the rise in divorce have led to a decline in the population of married women and to lower fertility throughout Europe. The growing prevalence of illegitimate fertility results from the steep decline in legitimate births and the sharply growing population of single women. Inasmuch as a sizable part of the decline in nuptiality is due to the gradual disappearance of marriages due to prenuptial pregnancy--attributable in part to more effective practice of contraception--levels of marriage will probably remain at a low level in the future. Denmark Sweden France East Germany and Hungary illustrate generally what is happening throughout Europe. Sweden was the 1st country in Europe to experience nuptiality decline. It therefore led all the other countries in modifying the marital composition of women of reproductive age. In the West Denmark was 2nd followed by France. The decline in East Germany began earlier than in France but moved at a slower pace. Hungary is more typical of Eastern Europe: an increase in the proportion of currently nonmarried women is just beginning. In all these countries the proportion of nonmarried women is rising and will continue to do so. It is expected that the ratio of illegitimate births to total births will continue to increase even if the fertility rate remains unchanged.