Abstract
Egypt has been facing substantial unplanned human settlement growth on agricultural land since the 1950s. Although plans to better manage future settlement growth are ongoing, a full understanding of unplanned settlement growth on agricultural land remains lacking. This study investigated why and how unplanned human settlement growth occurs in Assiut Governorate, the Nile Valley. A mixed-method approach combining the institutional resource regime framework, template analysis, and process tracing was used to gain insights into those mechanisms that generate unplanned growth. Analyzing the institutional land regime between 1805 and 2020 revealed that various public policies have existed alongside of land use and property rights, but the overall regime remains incoherent. In-depth interviews with stakeholders in Assiut Governorate highlighted that the informality in Assiut was driven by institutional and political, cultural, and economic forces (a total of 26 forces). Process tracing showed that the key mechanism behind unplanned settlement growth has existed since the 1950s and is triggered by a combination of incoherent public policy, land use and property rights. These results suggest that the current national development plan (2052 Vision) will most probably lead to similar setbacks if the land regime's complexity and incoherence are not addressed. They also revealed that several informal institutions and local values and customs could also be significant obstacles to effective regulation of the development of agricultural land in the Nile Valley and Delta Region.
Highlights
Human settlements have continued to experience high growth rates during recent decades, especially in developing countries where their future expansion will be the highest (Angel et al, 2007; Seto et al, 2012)
Since the 1970s, the Egyptian state has responded to the unplanned growth with three strategies: (1) redis tributing the population of the Nile Valley and Delta Region in new settlements in the desert (Tipple, 1986); (2) managing future human settlement growth through land use development plans (GOPP, 2009); (3) and creating legal instruments that ban unplanned growth, espe cially on agricultural land (Abbas, 2015)
We present the results and discussion of applying the institutional resource regime (IRR) framework, the template analysis results, and the process tracing theory-building to the issue of unplanned human settlement growth in Nile Valley
Summary
Human settlements have continued to experience high growth rates during recent decades, especially in developing countries where their future expansion will be the highest (Angel et al, 2007; Seto et al, 2012). Sustainable urban development approaches encourage smart, compact growth (Herold et al, 2003), many countries, including Egypt, continue to experience the conse quences of over-exploiting resources (Gerber et al, 2009). Such inability to effectively regulate resource use might be caused by contradictions between public policy instruments and/or property use and rights (Kissling-Naf and Kuks, 2004). The Nile Valley and Delta Region in Egypt is one of five areas in Africa that are expected to have high rates of human settlement growth (built-up area expansion) until 2030 (Seto et al, 2012). Since the 1970s, the Egyptian state has responded to the unplanned growth with three strategies: (1) redis tributing the population of the Nile Valley and Delta Region in new settlements in the desert (Tipple, 1986); (2) managing future human settlement growth through land use development plans (GOPP, 2009); (3) and creating legal instruments that ban unplanned growth, espe cially on agricultural land (Abbas, 2015)
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