The uncertainty in mega-regional SEA and its coping methods in China's practice

Abstract

Mega-regional strategic environmental assessment (RSEA) aims to provide decision-makers with scientific estimations and protective recommendations for regional development by taking inter-provincial space as work scopes, focalizing regional development as evaluation objects, and evaluating long-term ecological environmental impacts. Huge uncertainties inevitably exist in RSEA, affecting a reliable assessment. However, past literature offers limited guidance on how to systematically identify and address uncertainties in RSEAs. Thus, in light of uncertainty research in other environmental domains, an uncertainty typology of RSEA is constructed based on Simon's administrative model (1957) and Koernoev & Devuyst's decision situation (2016). Three uncertainty types including stochastic, epistemic, and technical uncertainties are developed to respectively interpret the variability-, knowledge-, and technic-related uncertainties. Various coping methods are identified, such as scenario analysis, modeling simulation, worst-case principles, adaptive management, etc. Then, practitioners' perception towards the uncertainty typology is investigated by a questionnaire survey, and the application of uncertainty coping approaches in RSEA practice is examined through case studies. Subsequently, the enlightenment of uncertainty handling in China's RSEA is proposed.