Managing uncertainties through scenario analysis in strategic environmental assessment

Abstract

Planning for the future is uncertain, and scenario analysis is a method of coping with the uncertainties of future plans. This paper addresses how to deal with future uncertainties by using scenario analysis as a possible approach for conducting a strategic environmental assessment (SEA). Although scenario-based approaches have been linked to strategic planning and SEA, this paper for the first time proposes how a combined approach may be implemented using specific tools and methodologies and, further on, it also implements the first three stages of the six stages proposed for the ‘scenario-based strategic planning’ approach. This work is an attempt to standardize SEA and scenario analysis as a combined approach. The three stages are tested within the Tourism Development Plan of the Iranian province of Gilan, which has been selected as a case study.