Abstract
The objective of the article is to scientifically evaluate supply chain reliability (SCR). We argue that this problem relates to two aspects ‐ the cognition and expression of SCR. The paper considers SCR as a unification of a fuzzy and random meaning in a dynamic environment. Furthermore, intrinsic relationship between the theoretical foundation of SCR evaluation and the cloud theory is discovered, accordingly to which, the cloud theory is applied to study the evaluation of SCR from a holistic perspective. According to the comprehensive invalidation degree of a supply chain, SCR is differentiated as six grades and the influencing factors of SCR are classified taking into account __ve aspects. A comprehensive performance model is developed to measure five aspects of influencing factors and to evaluate the exact class SCR belongs to. As we know, the cognition of SCR depends on human mind while the natural language is an appropriate medium to express human mind. Therefore, linguistic terms are adopted to express uncertain transformation between qualitative concepts and their corresponding quantitative values. This method is further demonstrated using a numerical example.
Highlights
Chain design models have traditionally treated the world as if we knew everything about it with certainty
The increasing reliability-related researches in engineering and management fields are carried out; they seldom refer to concepts in the literature of the academic supply chain
One cannot clearly identify to which state that supply chain belongs, whether being reliable or not the chain belongs to fuzzy rules and various numerical expressions about supply chain reliability (SCR) belonging to random variables
Summary
Chain design models have traditionally treated the world as if we knew everything about it with certainty. Even if all of the parameters of the supply chain are known with certainty, the system may face disruptions from time to time, for example, due to inclement weather, labour actions or sabotage (Snyder 2003). The increasing reliability-related researches in engineering and management fields are carried out; they seldom refer to concepts in the literature of the academic supply chain. There has not been a generally acknowledged definition of supply chain reliability (SCR). Thomas (2002) was the first who explicitly presented the concept of SCR defined as ‘the probability of the chain meeting mission requirements to provide the required supplies to the critical transfer points within the system’. A supply chain is reliable in case it performs well when the parts of the chain fail
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