The U.S. Superalloys Industry — Status and Outlook

Abstract

It has been proposed, only half in jest, that aircraft and other aerospace production, as well as computer hard and software production, are also modern benchmarks of technological development. The United States is by far the free world’s major producer of civilian (business), commercial, and military aircraft. It is interesting that about two-thirds of current U.S. produced airliners are sold to foreign airlines, with a significant number of those units being bought by East Asian and Middle Eastern companies.1 In recent years the United States has also made its latest fighters available to select foreign buyers.1 Historically, the commercial and military aircraft business has been highly cyclic, and should remain so.2 The principal use of superalloys is in the aircraft/aerospace industry (see Table I).3 The other significant use of superalloys is in the power generation industry. As one might expect, since the highly cyclic aircraft industry accounts for most of the superalloy sales, the volume of superalloy shipments is also highly cyclic (see Figure 1). In the 1976 downturn, superalloy shipments were estimated at 45 million pounds. They climbed to a peak of over 80 million pounds in 1979 and 1980, then dropped to lower levels in 1982. The consequences of the highly cyclic demand for superalloys, hedge buying and production overcapacity are considered, along with the internationalization of superalloy production, feedstock insecurities, and the effect of advanced materials to the current industry.