The Two Elections: A Comparative Analysis

Abstract

Two MAJOR AND related changes in political climate and political direction in India and Pakistan occurred in the first half of 1977. The first change was an immediate consequence of the announcement of elections in both countries, in January, and at least a partial lifting of the controls and restrictions on political activity, and on freedom of speech, assembly, and the press. The second change began as soon as the results of the elections were known and has already changed the political scene in both countries beyond recognition. These profound changes have surprised almost everybody who has been concerned with South Asian affairs. At the beginning of 1977, most pundits expected that Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto would probably hold national elections in Pakistan, as he had consistently promised, and that they would be a rather routine and controlled process, leading to a resounding victory for Bhutto and his Pakistan People's Party (PPP). Few experts expected Mrs. Gandhi to call elections in the spring of 1977, especially since a few weeks previously she had decided against holding elections; and almost all observers thought that if she did reverse her decision and go ahead with elections she would get a substantial, if a somewhat reduced, majority in the Lok Sabha. Almost no one expected that within a very short time the strong leaders who seemed to be in an impregnable position in India and Pakistan and the dominant parties they headed would be facing a wave of popular discontent and protest and that the positions that the leaders and parties occupied at the pinnacles of political power would be undermined as a result of the workings of the electoral process and its startling aftermath. Thus the recent elections in India and Pakistan, instead of being routine and unexciting efforts to relegitimize controlled regimes, proved to be critical elections, in the sense in which V. 0. Key used the term.' They were perhaps the most important and exciting elec-