The Trigger and Application of Black Swan Events: A Case Study of Silicon Valley Bank Failures

Abstract

On March 10, 2023, Federal regulators shut down Silicon Valley Bank, the 16th-largest bank in the country. As a result of the significant run, the bank was forced to file for bankruptcy. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the borrowing and triggering factors of black swan events by taking the Silicon Valley Bank bankruptcy event as an example, and to discuss the revelations and reflections of black swan events from the perspective of risk management based on the definition and characteristics of black swan events. Black swan events are those rare, unpredictable events with great impact, while bank bankruptcy events imply significant changes in the stability of the financial system. The failure of Silicon Valley Bank exposed the vulnerability of the banking sector and raised depositors' concerns about bank withdrawals and the cash flow crisis of global technology companies. Thus, the failure of Silicon Valley Bank has important lessons for future bank management and regulation. This paper argues that for most people, the failure of Silicon Valley Bank was not a black swan event, but even for many professionals, the impact of bank failures is unpredictable.