THE TREND IN CORRUPTION, CRUDE OIL THEFT, AND NATIONAL SECURITY: A CASE STUDY OF NIGERIA

Abstract

Over the past decade, Nigeria has faced a complex set of challenges, with corruption, crude oil theft, and national security issues being at the forefront. These problems have created a vicious cycle, where each issue exacerbates the other, leading to significant economic, political, and social repercussions. This study employs a longitudinal research design to investigate the relationship between national security, crude oil theft, and political corruption in Nigeria from 2013 to 2023. Nigeria, a leading global oil producer, has long grappled with security challenges, particularly in the Niger Delta region, where crude oil theft, violent events, and corruption have been pervasive. Using secondary data sourced from repositories, the study examines trends in crude oil theft, violent fatalities, and political corruption. Data were cleaned and analysed using R. The analysis reveals fluctuating trends in crude oil theft and corruption over the decade, with periods of peak activity aligning with political and security instability. The highest levels of crude oil theft were recorded in 2013 and 2023, while the political corruption index saw a significant decline from 2015 onwards, suggesting the partial success of anti-corruption measures. The findings highlight a complex interplay between corruption and oil theft, with spikes in violence and fatalities corresponding to key years of political unrest. The study underscores the importance of targeted interventions to address the cyclical nature of corruption, theft, and insecurity in Nigeria’s oil sector.