The Transnistria Problem and the Crisis in Ukraine: Analysis from the Perspective of the Security Dilemma Argument

Abstract

Transnistria, an unrecognized state within the borders of the Republic of Moldova, has been in a precarious situation following the Ukrainian crisis, characterized by the annexation of Crimea by the Russia Federation and the internal conflict in eastern Ukraine. This has resulted in Ukraine and Moldova adopting stringent policies against Transnistria, thereby intensifying its already challenging situation. The main concern derives from the fear that Russia might use Transnistria as a base for launching future “hybrid warfare” against Moldova and Ukraine. Thus, it can be said that the current challenging situation in Transnistria is linked to the overall Ukrainian crisis and is a consequence of security concerns shared by Ukraine and Moldova. In addition, the new situation after the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine complicated conditions in Transnistria. Now, the Moldovan government has an opportunity to reintegrate Transnistria, independent of any issues related to the EU membership issue. On the other hand, Russia’s basic policy toward Transnistria has not changed, although Transnistria has requested annexation by Russia many times, so the status quo seems to continue. This composition has continued in the former USSR space because Russia has been using unrecognized states to maintain its “sphere of interest.” This situation can be explained by the “security dilemma” argument.