The transition away from coal is inevitable

Abstract

During the past four decades the difference between two American presidential administrations has never been so striking. Aside from access to affordable health care, no single issue splits the administrations wider than their approaches to climate change. On Aug 3, 2015, during Barak Obama's presidency, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced a series of state-level standards and rules to reduce carbon emissions from coal-fired power plants known as the Clean Power Plan, developed under the auspices of the Clean Air Act. On Oct 10, 2017, Donald Trump's administration announced its intention to revoke Obama's plan to limit greenhouse gas emissions from coal-fired power plants. To fulfil its promise to cut emissions as part of the Paris Agreement, the plan set up under Obama was designed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to below 32% of 2005 levels by 2030. Getting rid of the Clean Power Plan will mark the end of the Obama's environmental legacy to tackle climate change and begin a new era for the USA wherein the EPA will set up new goals and emissions targets, and new ways to reach them, to regulate toxic pollution from existing power plants. Does this change mark the rise of the coal industry again? In 2016, about 4·08 trillion kilowatt hours (kWh) of electricity were generated in the USA. 30% of this electricity was generated from coal. However, the US electricity sector has been going through a transitional period as coal has given way to natural gas and to newer, cleaner technologies. The share of US electricity coming from coal fell unprecedentedly from 51% in 2008 to 30% in 2016. According to a report on coal from the Union of Concerned Scientists, many coal power plants are closing; between 2008 and 2017 almost 17% of the coal capacity in the USA was retired, and one in four plants are converting to natural gas. The transition away from coal is not yet over, but progress is being made. Many utility companies have already opted to move away from coal towards natural gas, wind, and solar power driven by affordable costs and the profitable clean (and green) energy market. In March, 2017, for the first time, wind and solar sources accounted for 10% of all electricity generation. In 2016, solar and wind industries were the primary engines of job creation in the US renewable energy sector, which employed almost 777 000 people. Favourable policies, declining technological costs, and incentives—such as establishment of strong renewable energy portfolio standards—will be needed to continue to bring the cost for renewable-based electricity below the price of electricity from fossil fuels. Reduced costs and a functional marketplace will afford individuals, households, and communities more control over where they choose to get their energy. In Nevada, for example solar electricity is sold at a rate of $0·3 per kWh, which is similar to the price of the electricity produced by fossil fuels. Investing in renewable energy will produce a great public health benefit and also has the potential to replace fossil fuel sources for the production of energy. In a 2017 article by Possner and colleagues, it was calculated that a wind farm in the middle of the North Atlantic during the winter times could provide enough energy to meet the entire global electricity demand. The Trump administration may wish to halt the inevitable decline of coal, but the absence of a replacement plan and the low cost of renewable energy make this aim unrealistic. Obama's plan to cut carbon dioxide emission was controversial to many as the Clean Power Plan set targets for coal power planets assuming states could build more renewables and shut coal plants. However, this approach was different from how the EPA normally does things. For example, when it sets standards for power plants it usually only looks at actions that could be undertaken at the plants themselves. Obama's plan to cut emissions from power plants was one of the strongest actions taken to fight climate change in USA. Analysts have in fact suggested that, thanks to the low cost of renewables, the target of reducing carbon dioxide emissions to below 32% of the 2005 levels by 2030 will be met despite the repeal. Moving away from the coal era is imperative and inevitable. All investments should continue to support cleaner and greener technologies that will protect not only the planet but will also contribute to building a healthy economy that will sustainably support current and future generations.