The total number of patients with any of four major fragility fractures decreased during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Japan, commencing before the state of emergency declaration, which was not as enforceable as lockdown.

Abstract

This study aimed to investigate the impact of public health measures in the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic on the occurrence of major fragility fractures (MFFs). Patients aged 50years or older who were hospitalized or had an initial visit as an outpatient for an MFF, defined as a proximal femoral fracture (PFF), vertebral fragility fracture (VFF), distal radius fracture (DRF), or a proximal humeral fracture (PHF), were included in this study. Three-phase interrupted time-series analyses were performed to evaluate the impact of the voluntary event cancellation request in late February 2020 and the emergency declaration in early April 2020 on changes in the total number of patients, including inpatients and first-visit outpatients. A total of 166,560 patients with MFFs were included (92,767 PFFs, 26,158 VFFs, 33,869 DRFs, and 13,766 PHFs). From the end of February, in seven prefectures with high proportions of urbanization, decreasing trends were estimated for level changes and slope changes in the total number of patients with any of the four MFFs (level change: PFF; point estimate; - 13.5 (95% CI; - 43.4, 16.5), VFF; - 15.3 (- 32.2, 1.5), DRF; - 16.1 (- 39.9, 7.6), PHF; - 1.9 (- 13.6, 9.8), slope change: PFF; - 4.8 (- 14.0, 4.4), VFF; - 3.0 (- 8.1, 2.2), DRF; - 0.6 (- 7.9, 6.7), PHF; - 2.4 (- 6.0, 1.2)). The findings suggested that the total number of patients with any of the four MFFs did not begin to decline from early April 2020 after the state of emergency was declared but earlier, in late February 2020.