Abstract
SummaryA surrogate FRAX® model for Nepal has been constructed using age- and sex-specific hip fracture rates for Indians living in Singapore and age- and sex-specific mortality rates from Nepal.IntroductionFRAX models are frequently requested for countries with little or no data on the incidence of hip fractures. In such circumstances, the development of a surrogate FRAX model is recommended based on country-specific mortality data but using fracture data from a country, usually within the region, where fracture rates are considered to be representative of the index country.ObjectiveThis report describes the development and characteristics of a surrogate FRAX model for Nepal.MethodsThe FRAX model used the ethnic-specific incidence of hip fracture in the Indian community of Singapore, combined with the death risk for Nepal in 2015–2019. The number of hip fractures in 2015 and 2050 was estimated based on the United Nations’ predicted changes in population demography.ResultsThe surrogate model gave similar hip fracture probabilities to estimates from Sri Lanka, India and Pakistan but lower 10-year fracture probabilities for men and women at older ages compared to the model for Singapore, reflecting a higher mortality risk in Nepal compared with Singapore. There were very close correlations in fracture probabilities between the Nepalese and the Singapore models (r> 0.995) so that the use of the Nepalese model had little impact on the rank order of risk, i.e. a person at the xth percentile of risk with one model will be at the xth percentile of risk with the other. It was estimated that 6897 hip fractures arose in 2015 in individuals aged 50 years and older in Nepal, with a predicted 3-fold increase expected by 2050, when 23,409 hip fractures are expected nationally.ConclusionThe surrogate FRAX model for Nepal provides an opportunity to determine fracture probability within the Nepalese population and help guide decisions about treatment.
Published Version
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.