The threshold effect of HDI on the relationship between financial development and oil revenues

Abstract

This paper tried to study the threshold effect of the Human Development Index (HDI) on the relationship between oil revenues and financial development. For this purpose, the threshold regression model is used. In addition, the financial depth index was considered as a measure of financial development. Data were collected with annual frequency (1990–2018) from the most recent statistics published by the Central Bank, Statistics Center of Iran, and OPEC website. The results showed that oil revenues in Iran had a negative significant effect on financial development. This result is consistent with the resource curse phenomenon, despite the expectation of the protective role of oil in the economy of Iran. However, at high levels of human development (index value that is upper than threshold value), this negative impact was reduced. Therefore, promoting human development can be mentioned as a solution to compensate for the negative effect of oil revenues. In addition, the variables of production growth and capital inventory, as expected, had a positive significant effect on financial development.