The thermal performance of urban form – An analysis on urban structure types in Berlin

Abstract

Increasing urban heat issues induced by climatic changes and growing urban populations exacerbate the need for adaptation. The present study intends to foster the so far quite rarely realized transfer from research to real-world planning. Subject of investigation is the thermal performance and characterization of urban structure types (USTs) in Berlin, Germany. Applying Landsat 8 derived land surface temperatures (LSTs), we first determine differences in the temperature patterns of the regarded USTs. Second, after running correlation analyses with LST and potentially influencing factors (NDVI – normalized difference vegetation index, imperviousness, building ratio, and building height), we fit ordinary least square (OLS) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models. Finally, we relate the GWR results to the USTs and determine the effect of each variable on the respective LST regime. We find significant differences in the thermal performance of USTs, strong correlations between explaining variables and LST, and a sophisticated picture concerning GWR coefficients at various locations. Quasi-global r2 for the GWR (0.83) improves the OLS model value (0.53) considerably. The spatially explicit GWR method in combination with results aggregated on the planning-relevant UST-level provides crucially important information for climate adaptation and planning while being adaptable and transferable to other urban areas.