Urban patterns and the geography of street robberies in the city of São Paulo, Brazil

Abstract

The geography of urban crime has often been associated with the city's geography. In this study we analyze the geography of street robbery and its relation to the various urban patterns in the city of São Paulo. First, we analyze how different variables influence the spatial distribution of street robbery, using a combination of geospatial and statistical methodologies. Then, we analyze how these different variables behave over the city of São Paulo according to eight types of urban patterns. Finally, we interpret the resulting body of evidence considering existing criminological theory. Our results suggest that the geography of street robbery in São Paulo is a result of two main drivers: (1) accessibility and population flow, tied to key roadways in the city, and (2) social issues, tied to high murder rates and, in a smaller degree, low income. Within the city's geography, these two factors tend to not align spatially and are sometimes diametrically opposite. As we found, the geography of street robbery in São Paulo is a middle of the way between these two drivers, albeit closer to the social issues driver. We also discuss some policy implications and possibilities for future research.