The temporal trend and disparity in short-term health impacts of fine particulate matter in California (2006–2019)

Abstract

Most epidemiological studies assume that the relationship between short-term air pollution exposure and health outcomes is constant over time, which ignores potential changes in population composition and particulate matter emission sources. Limited studies have assessed changes in the relationship between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and adverse health outcomes over time, with mixed results. Additionally, there is a need to identify which subgroups are disproportionately impacted over time by PM2.5-related health consequences. Therefore, we aimed to examine whether temporal trends exist in the relationships between daily PM2.5 exposure and circulatory and respiratory acute care utilization in California from 2006 to 2019. We further assessed whether certain subpopulations are more susceptible to PM2.5 exposure by demographic characteristics and extreme wildfire frequency. Daily PM2.5 concentrations estimated from a stacked ensemble model and daily cause-specific acute care utilization and demographic data from the California Department of Health Care Access and Information. We analyzed this relationship using modified two-stage Bayesian hierarchical models, where we first did not consider temporal trends, then stratified by two periods, and finally flexibly considered non-linear changes over time. Increases in circulatory (0.56 %; 95 % credible interval (CI): 0.17 %, 0.96 %) and respiratory acute care utilization risk (2.61 %; 95%CI: 2.29 %, 2.94 %) were found with every 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 on the same day and previous two days. These risks were found to increase over time, where 0.13 % (95%CI: 0.02 %, 0.22 %) and 1.40 % (95%CI: 1.24 %, 1.54 %) increases were identified for circulatory and respiratory acute care utilizations, respectively, from the first (2006–2012) to second period (2013–2019). Differences by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and extreme wildfire frequency were noted. These findings confirm that air pollution guidelines should consider the dynamic nature of epidemiological dose-response and can provide insight for targeted air pollution control and adaptation policies designed to reduce PM2.5 exposure, particularly for the most susceptible subpopulations.