The Temporal Contact Equation: An Estimate for the Time of First Contact with ETI

Abstract

First contact between humanity and ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence (ETI) has been a subject for interesting debate particularly over the last century. It is now possible to estimate the likely time-scales for when this may occur due to the significant development of two separate disciplines of knowledge; interstellar propulsion theory and the discovery of exoplanets. This paper demonstrates such a calculation with the aim of provoking discussion and preparations where appropriate. It is estimated on the speculative assumption that if intelligent (advanced technological) life existing within ~200 light years (ly) of Sol first contact may occur as early as in the next ~1-2 centuries depending on the velocity maturation level and technological growth model assumptions. This calculation has been made purely on the basis of our arrival out there and does not take into account the possibility of them arriving here which may be much earlier or could have occurred already. Keywords: Interstellar studies, Exoplanets, SETI