Abstract
In the field of astrobiology, the precise location, prevalence, and age of potential extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) have not been explicitly explored. Here, we address these inquiries using an empirical galactic simulation model to analyze the spatial–temporal variations and the prevalence of potential ETI within the Galaxy. This model estimates the occurrence of ETI, providing guidance on where to look for intelligent life in the Search for ETI (SETI) with a set of criteria, including well-established astrophysical properties of the Milky Way. Further, typically overlooked factors such as the process of abiogenesis, different evolutionary timescales, and potential self-annihilation are incorporated to explore the growth propensity of ETI. We examine three major parameters: (1) the likelihood rate of abiogenesis (λA); (2) evolutionary timescales (Tevo); and (3) probability of self-annihilation of complex life (Pann). We found Pann to be the most influential parameter determining the quantity and age of galactic intelligent life. Our model simulation also identified a peak location for ETI at an annular region approximately 4 kpc from the galactic center around 8 billion years (Gyrs), with complex life decreasing temporally and spatially from the peak point, asserting a high likelihood of intelligent life in the galactic inner disk. The simulated age distributions also suggest that most of the intelligent life in our galaxy are young, thus making observation or detection difficult.
Highlights
There have been fundamental questions regarding intelligent life within the Galaxy
We investigated the quantity of extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) (ZETI) with spatial and temporal profiles
We note that our simulation for gas and conversion of gas to stars are coarse, with a static Milky Way spatial hash table lacking the considerations of stellar kinematics; we only focus on the growth propensity of ETI in a galactic scale, which are not heavily associated to the migration of stars
Summary
There have been fundamental questions regarding intelligent life within the Galaxy. The study of extraterrestrial life intelligence (ETI) has long been based on only one sample: Earth. The Search for ETI (SETI, e.g., [1]) has been heavily limited by our current technology and a lack of quantitative understanding of intelligent life on a galactic scale, and the answers to the absence of life discovery elsewhere have remained controversial. It is warranted to develop a spatial–temporal analysis on the quantitative propensity of ETI, and a galactic-scale evaluation of different key parameters to explore the likely characteristics of intelligent life within the Milky Way. while relying heavily on Earth as one sample may not seem ideal, we are not devoid of other information; with the recent investigation of stellar observations, we can apply our knowledge from Earth to Earth-like planets to develop a comprehensive overview of where and when intelligent life may emerge and develop in the Galaxy
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