The temporal and spatial evolution of green finance and carbon emissions in the Pearl River Delta region: An analysis of impact pathways

Abstract

The issue of carbon emissions has become increasingly urgent in tandem with the rapid growth of the economy in the Pearl River Delta region. This paper uses kernel density estimation and standard deviation ellipses based on Pearl River Delta data from 2012 to 2021 to explore the spatiotemporal evolution trends of green financing and carbon emissions. Additionally, it uses a spatial Durbin model to examine the spatial effects of green finance on carbon emissions. The results indicate the following: Firstly, over the years, green finance shows an overall increasing trend, with an internal spatial pattern characterized by higher levels in the northeast and lower levels in the southwest. In contrast, carbon emissions are decreasing, with an internal spatial pattern characterized by higher levels in the southwest and lower levels in the northeast. Secondly, more and more green financing initiatives are aiming towards the Pearl River Delta's northeast, suggesting a more significant concentration of such initiatives there than elsewhere. At the same time, carbon emissions seem to converge on the southwest of the Pearl River Delta, which could indicate that this area generally has greater carbon emission levels. Finally, the spatial effect results reveal that improving green finance levels can significantly inhibit carbon emission levels in the Pearl River Delta region. Evidence of spatial spillover effects indicates that the carbon emissions in neighboring areas are influenced to some extent. This study on green finance and carbon emissions' spatiotemporal characteristics and spatial impact gives a development path and theoretical support for sustainable development goals in the global economy.