The technology of intelligent analysis in predicting the epidemiological situation of hiv infection in the west kazakhstan region

Abstract

The article uses the main directions of development of mathematical modeling of control and spread of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV infection), dynamic and structural classification of the epidemic process. Statistical data on the West Kazakhstan region for the period 2010-2020 were taken from the regional center for the prevention and control of AIDS of the health department of the Akimat of the West Kazakhstan region, with a description of the spread of the virus, depending on the available data and tasks in the world and in the Republic of Kazakhstan, a retrospective, cluster analysis of HIV-infected people was carried out. The characteristics of the morbidity schedule are given, the risk is identified, statistical forecasts of morbidity are checked. In scientific and practical studies, the prevalence of criteria and observations of the epidemic was considered from the information technology side. Examples are given using a forecasting system and existing intelligent mathematical model systems. One of the important directions is the prediction of the consequences of the HIV epidemic, the study of immunological dynamics within one organism, the problem of predicting the development of the epidemic situation at the population level. Data Mining classification methods were used to process HIV-infected people and analyze the situation by age characteristics. The prognosis of the morbidity of the West Kazakhstan region by the age group of HIV-infected people over a 10-year period was carried out using the Statistica application software package.