The Tanabata House of Councillors Election in Japan

Abstract

wo entirely different sets of predictions had been made by Japanese political commentators about the outcome of the double seven House of Councillors election. Towards the end of last year (1973), the demise of an absolute majority for the LDP seemed all but assured. This pessimistic assessment of the LDP's fortunes, and optimistic vision for the fortunes of the opposition parties reflected the clouds of doom that seemed to descend in the aftermath of the twin crises of inflation and shortage of energy supplies, especially oil. By contrast, when I arrived in Japan on June 16, 1974, there was an air of buoyant optimism among LDPers. (Prime Minister Tanaka went so far as to predict that the LDP might win 80 of the 130 seats that were to be contested.) Simultaneously, the earlier brave talk by oppositionists that they might capture control of the Diet's second chamber had been replaced by despair. In actuality, neither set of predictions proved to be accurate. The results of the election maintained the governing LDP's majority, but reduced it to one that is paper thin in the House of Councillors. In this instance, majority refers to the total number of seats held by the LDP, not to the popular vote. For example, in the local (Prefectural) constituencies, LDP candidates picked up less than 40% of the popular vote for the first time in the party's nineteen-year history. This result will create some problems for the LDP in managing the affairs of the Diet's second chamber. The oppositionists demanded-but were rejected successfully-that the post of Vice-Speaker be filled from among their ranks. Additionally, they claimed and got their share of committee chairmanships (nearly one half of the total). To the extent that all of these posts have some influence, the tendency towards a kind of immobilism can only become even more pronounced than in the past. This is especially the case in certain controversial areas of public policy and legislation such as defense, education, and trade liberalization. Prime Minister Tanaka's position has been weakened. Not only the Japanese voters, but some factional leaders in the LDP have openly expressed their disappointment with their current leader. Subsequent to his major initial achievement in foreign affairs-normalization of diplomatic