Abstract
The production of new apartments in Sweden has varied strongly during the period from 1975 to 2021. A new statistical function, which explains these production changes, has been developed. This function is designed, based on a set of hypotheses of how the production level should be affected by different explaining factors, such as the GNP, the size of the population, the growth of the population, and the cost of construction. The following hypotheses could not be rejected: the apartment production is a strictly increasing and strictly convex function of GNP, and a strictly increasing function of the size of the population and the growth of the population, and a strictly decreasing function of the cost of construction. The parameters of the statistical function have been estimated with high precision, via multiple regression analysis. It was not possible to detect heteroscedasticity via residual analysis. Furthermore, no indications that nonlinear transformations would improve the selected model were found. The apartment production model contains a strongly significant negative time trend. The estimated function is used to predict the future apartment production until the year 2050. The predictions are based on assumed growth levels of GNP and the population, and on alternative future time trends of the construction cost index. If the real construction cost index continues to grow with the same average trend as from the year 1993 to 2021, the future apartment construction level will stay almost constant at 40,000 apartments per year until 2050. If the future real construction cost index stays constant at the level in 2022, the production of new apartments will grow to almost 90,000 apartments per year in 2050. If the real construction cost index can be decreased to the level in 1993, the production of new apartments will grow to almost 130,000 apartments per year in the year 2050.
Published Version
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