The sustained effect of a temporary measure: Urban firearm mortality following expiration of the Federal Assault Weapons Ban

Abstract

BackgroundThe Federal Assault Weapons Ban (FAWB) was in effect from 1994 to 2004. We sought to examine its impact on firearm-related homicides. MethodsAll firearm-related homicides occurring in three metropolitan United States cities were analyzed during the decade preceding (PRE), during (BAN), and after (POST) the FAWB. Files were obtained from the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Rates of firearm-related homicides were stratified by year and compared using simple linear regression. Results21,327 firearm-related homicides were analyzed. The median number of firearm-related homicides per year decreased from 333 (PRE) to 199 (BAN) (p = 0.008). This effect persisted following expiration of the ban (BAN 199 vs POST 206, p = 0.429). The rate of firearm-related homicides per 1 M population also decreased from 119.4 in 1985 to 49.2 in 2014 (β = −2.73, p < 0.0001). ConclusionsDuring the FAWB, there was a significant decrease in firearm-related homicides in three of the most dangerous cities, underscoring the need for better directed prevention efforts.