Retrospective evidence for pediatric benefit of U.S. assault weapons ban as rationale for implementing an even more effective ban

Abstract

BackgroundWith data available since 1981, firearm death rates in American children and adolescents can be evaluated for trends during the 13 years before, the decade of, and during 16 years since the United States (U.S.) 1994–2004 Federal Assault Weapons Ban (FAWB). MethodsNational and regional firearm mortality trends in the U.S. during 1981–2020 were assessed with joinpoint regression applied to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. ResultsAfter increasing exponentially before the FAWB, the national firearm death rate in 0-14 year-olds promptly reversed course and declined throughout the FAWB and then reversed again after the FAWB and resumed an exponential increase (all phases p<0.001). The reduction in firearm death rate occurred within 1–3 years of the start of the FAWB, in both sexes, in all four census regions of the U.S., and in all four major race/ethnicity subgroups, especially non-Hispanic blacks. No other form of violence in 0-14 year-olds had this temporal relationship with the FAWB. The firearm mortality reduction during the FAWB is strongly-highly correlated with the concomitant reduction in handgun manufacturing in 91 % of 24 sex, race/ethnicity and region subsets analyzed, These FAWB-related trends were also apparent in older adolescents and young adults and less so in older persons. ConclusionsFirearm death rates in 0–14 year-olds before, during, and after the FAWB, and no other type of injury, implicate the FAWB as having had a beneficial effect. Legislation to mitigate firearm mortality and injury inclusive of a FAWB should be especially beneficial to children and young adolescents, and regardless of sex, race/ethnicity or region in the U.S.