The Sustainability of Thailand’s Protected-Area System under Climate Change

Nirunrut Pomoim,Richard T. Corlett,Alice C. Hughes,Robert J. Zomer

doi:10.3390/su13052868

Abstract

Protected areas are the backbone of biodiversity conservation but vulnerable to climate change. Thailand has a large and well-planned protected area system, covering most remaining natural vegetation. A statistically derived global environmental stratification (GEnS) was used to predict changes in bioclimatic conditions across the protected area system for 2050 and 2070, based on projections from three CMIP5 earth system models and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Five bioclimatic zones were identified composed of 28 strata. Substantial spatial reorganization of bioclimates is projected in the next 50 years, even under RCP2.6, while under RCP8.5 the average upward shift for all zones by 2070 is 328–483 m and the coolest zone disappears with two models. Overall, 7.9–31.0% of Thailand’s land area will change zone by 2070, and 31.7–90.2% will change stratum. The consequences for biodiversity are less clear, particularly in the lowlands where the existing vegetation mosaic is determined largely by factors other than climate. Increasing connectivity of protected areas along temperature and rainfall gradients would allow species to migrate in response to climate change, but this will be difficult in much of Thailand. For isolated protected areas and species that cannot move fast enough, more active, species-specific interventions may be necessary.

Highlights

Protected areas are the backbone of global biodiversity conservation, as well as making a major contribution to the provision of key ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration, erosion control, the supply of clean water, and ecotourism
We developed the stratification based upon predicted future climate conditions using three earth system models (HadGEM2-ES, CNRM-CM5, and GFDL-CM3), previously used in Southeast Asia, to create climate predictions under two representative concentration pathways, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, representing low and high greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios, respectively [21]
The increase is greatest in the northern parts of Thailand, approaching and exceeding 3.0 ◦ C under RCP8.5 with GFDLCM3 and HadGEM2-ES

Summary

Introduction

Protected areas are the backbone of global biodiversity conservation, as well as making a major contribution to the provision of key ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration, erosion control, the supply of clean water, and ecotourism. Protected areas are fixed in place, and vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change, which may make some or all of the protected area unsuitable for some of the species at which it is targeted [1]. Despite this vulnerability, there is evidence that protected areas can act as a buffer against some of the detrimental effects of climate change [2]. 15% currently), coupled with limiting global warming to 2 ◦ C, would more than halve tropical extinction risks [4]. The current working version of the Convention on Biological Diversity’s post-2020 framework, due to be confirmed at a meeting in China in

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