Abstract
Protected areas are the backbone of biodiversity conservation but are fixed in space and vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change. Myanmar is exceptionally rich in biodiversity but has a small protected area system. This study aimed to assess the potential vulnerability of this system to climate change. In the absence of good biodiversity data, we used a spatial modeling approach based on a statistically derived bioclimatic stratification (the Global Environmental Stratification, GEnS) to understand the spatial implications of projected climate change for Myanmar’s protected area system by 2050 and 2070. Nine bioclimatic zones and 41 strata were recognized in Myanmar, but their representation in the protected area system varied greatly, with the driest zones especially underrepresented. Under climate change, most zones will shift upslope, with some protected areas projected to change entirely to a new bioclimate. Potential impacts on biodiversity include mountaintop extinctions of species endemic to isolated peaks, loss of climate specialists from small protected areas and those with little elevational range, and woody encroachment into savannas and open forests as a result of both climate change and rising atmospheric CO2. Myanmar needs larger, better connected, and more representative protected areas, but political, social, and economic problems make this difficult.
Highlights
IntroductionTropical East Asia supports 15–25% of global terrestrial biodiversity in around 4% of Earth’s total land area [1], but is one of the most threatened regions of the planet [2]
The spatial shifts of bioclimatic zones and strata were evaluated to estimate the potential impacts of climate change across Myanmar
Myanmar’s current protected area system is small for such a biodiversity-rich country and not representative of the country’s great climatic diversity
Summary
Tropical East Asia supports 15–25% of global terrestrial biodiversity in around 4% of Earth’s total land area [1], but is one of the most threatened regions of the planet [2]. Climate change is likely to become an additional major driver of habitat degradation and species loss [8]. Warming in the tropics has been large relative to natural climate variability, so most regions are already experiencing thermal climates that were unknown in the 19th century [9]. Changes in precipitation in tropical East Asia have generally been small relative to natural variability. In other parts of the world, many species are already shifting their distributions towards higher altitudes and latitudes [10], but there have been few observations of this in tropical Asia [1,8]
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