The Sustainability of International Trade: The Impact of Ongoing Military Conflicts, Infrastructure, Common Language, and Economic Wellbeing in Post-Soviet Region

Abstract

The sustainability of international trade is subject to immense pressure. Apart from obstructed logistics, disruption of production chains and changes in demand, the sustainability of international trade is heavily affected by the sanctions caused by the Russia–Ukraine conflict. This paper studies the factors predicting sustainable international trade in the post-Soviet region. We hypothesize that ongoing conflicts, infrastructure, language integration, geographical proximity, common border, and economic wellbeing significantly impact international trade. Methodologically we rely on linear and hierarchical regressions estimating a set of gravitation models (N = 15 countries—104 trading pairs; 2010–2020). The results suggest that Russian as a primary language and the average density of road networks positively predict bilateral trade volume. The geographical distance, infrastructure differences, military conflicts, and, surprisingly, the pair-average GDP per capita diminish bilateral trade. Countries’ GDP mediates the effect of GDP per capita. The results are robust over time. The results present an important insight into sustainable international trade within the region affected by the numerous military conflicts in the past and the war conflict between Russia and Ukraine nowadays. The rebuilding of Ukrainian transport infrastructure is one of the essential measures from the country’s point of view and a factor supporting internationally sustainable food supply.