Abstract

The aim of this research is to analyze the budget deficit sustainability and by doing so determine whether the government can use it to reduce the negative consequences without compromising the overall balance. In the recent decades, some developed countries have been facing extremely high budget deficits, which attracts great attention of economists. The risk of default is hanging like the Sword of Damocles above the heads of some EU members and everyone agrees that the increase in public debt is unsustainable. State budgets begin to resemble a Ponzi scheme - let usjust mention the US federal deficit. This is also a central issue for the EMU, because debt cannot continue to grow faster than the national income. Over time, an increasing part of the budget has been dedicated to debt servicing, until finally its amount does not force the authorities to finance debt either by printing money or by defaulting. This paper points out that solutions are possible if the executive state authorities abandon the unreasonable spending and the neo-liberal concept of managing the economy. But without compelling changes of the country's economic policy, the risk will reach the point where the adverse effects become inevitable.

Highlights

  • it to reduce the negative consequences without compromising the overall balance

  • risk of default is hanging like the Sword of Damocles abo e the heads

  • everyone agrees that the increase in public debt is unsustainable

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Summary

ODRŽIVOST DEFICITA BUDŽETA

Sažetak: Suština ovog istraživanja je da se analizom održivosti budžetskog decita ustano i da li vlada njime može da umanji negativne posledice a da ne ugrozi ukupnu ravnotežu. Rizik od neispunjavanja obaveza visi kao Damoklo mač iznad glava nekih članica EU i svi se slažu da je po ećanje javnog duga neodrživo. Državni budžeti poprimaju formu i razmere Poncijeve šeme – pomenimo samo federalni de cit SAD. Ovo je centralna tema i za područje EMU jer dug ne može neprestano da raste brže od nacionalnog prihoda. Sve veći deo budžeta je posvećen servisiranju duga, sve dok, na kraju, njego a veličina ne primora vlasti da dug nansiraјu ili štampanjem no ca ili neizvršenjem obaveza. Bez ozbiljnih promena u ekonomskoj politici zemlje, ovaj rizik će dostići tačku kada neće moći da se izbegnu ozbiljni neželjeni efekti. Ključne reči: budžetski de cit / prihod / javni dug / državna potrošnja / monetarna unija / održivost

Milorad Perović
MATЕMATIČKA POSTAVKA ODRŽIVOSTI DEFICITA BUDŽETA
FISKALNA POLITIKA KAO FLEKSIBILAN INSTRUMENT
ARGUMETI ZA PROPISE O DEFICITU BUDŽETA
FISKALNA DISCIPLINA U MONETARNOJ UNIJI
Polovina utrošenih cikličnih visokih prihoda
Rizik od neplaćanja duga i izbavljenja u monetarnoj uniji
Milorad Perovic
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