Abstract
Under the premise of the theory that there isa negative correlation between industrial structure optimize and employmentelasticity coefficient, this paper uses the data from 2000 to 2013 ofstatistical yearbook of Shanghai, calculates the average employment elasticitycoefficient and predicts the population scale at the end of 2020. Meanwhile,this paper also predicts the total population of the same year with thebenchmarking of the employment elasticity coefficient in developed countries.Compared with the both predictions, the result shows that the population ofShanghai will reduce about 2 million with the lower employment elasticitycoefficient. This paper advices Shanghai government should seize theopportunity of optimizing industrial structure, make full use of economical means and take advantage of the trend tocontrol the population scale.
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