The Study of Evaluation and Prediction of China’s Crude Oil’s Safety Based on the Degree of Foreign Dependence

Abstract

As the blood of industry, crude oil, to a large extent, determines the security and development of a country. China has been importing very much overseas crude oil for a long time, making it strongly necessary to study China’s crude oil safety. Therefore, based on the degree of foreign dependence, the regular curves of overseas import crude oil and China’s crude oil consumption are computed by numerical fitting to evaluate and predict the safety of China’s crude oil, and the results show that (1)the degree of foreign dependence of China’s crude oil is higher than the international average value, 20%, for a long time, and (2)it has exceeded the international high security warning line by 50% since 2009 and reached nearlly 70% at 2017, probably soaring to 90% in 2020. So, China’s overseas crude oil has been in a highly dangerous state for a long time. Therefore, it is necessary to reduce the degree of foreign dependence of China’s crude oil to improve the safety of China’s crude oil with the following aspects: (1)developing and making use of alternative green energy, and (2)improving the efficiency of crude oil utilization and strengthening secondary and multiple use of the crude oil.