Abstract
In the context of global warming, agricultural production and social and economic development are significantly affected by drought. The future change of climate conditions is uncertain; thus, it is of great importance to clarify the aspects of drought in order to define local and regional drought adaptation strategies. In this study, the meteorological data from 1976 to 2005 was used as a historical reference, and nine Global Climate Models (GCMs), downscaling to meteorological stations from 2039 to 2089, were used as future climate data. Based on Penman–Monteith, the reference crop Evapotranspiration (ET0) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) of the reference crop in three emission scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, under future climate conditions, were calculated. A non-parameter Mann–Kendall trend test was performed on temperature, precipitation, ET0, and SPEI to analyze the drought spatiotemporal distribution traits under upcoming climate scenarios. The results showed that, under future climate conditions, SPEI values in most areas of the Huang-Huai-Hai region would continuously increase year by year, and drought would be alleviated to some extent at the same pace. However, with the increase of greenhouse gas concentration in the emission scenarios, SPEI values continued to decline. In the RCP8.5 scenario, the area of severe drought was large. To sum up, in the future climate scenario, the degree of drought in the Huang-Huai-Hai region will be alleviated to some extent with the increase of rainfall, but with the increase of greenhouse gas concentration, the degree of drought will be further intensified, posing a huge challenge to agricultural water use in the region. This study provides a theoretical foundation for alleviating drought in the Huang-Huai-Hai region in future climate scenarios.
Highlights
Under the general trend of global warming, extreme climate events occur frequently [1]
In the 2080s, the temperature shows an obvious increase in the three scenarios
With the increase of time, the area with the higher temperature in the south of the region sees a gradual rise in temperature, while the area with lower temperature in the northwest of the Huang-Huai-Hai region sees a gradual decline in temperature
Summary
Under the general trend of global warming, extreme climate events occur frequently [1]. Tang et al [20] used SPEI and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), which was developed on the basis of SPI, to analyze the evolution of hydrological and meteorological droughts in southwest China during the period 1968−2018. By studying the impacts of precipitation and evapotranspiration on global drought in the 21st century, Cook et al [26] discovered that the increase of global drought area in the 2080s was mainly due to the increase of ET0. In 1990, The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) included the Penman–Monteith (PM) equation as the standard calculation for evapotranspiration. This equation is more accurately based on physics, but it considers larger parameters and is more complicated to use [29].
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