The Study for the Prediction Model of China Population Growth

Abstract

China has a huge population. Now, it is facing a more complex trend of population change than the one in the 20th century. Population issue is the key factor restricting China’s development. As further slowing-down population growth, improving population quality, developing human resources, and properly solving the issue of population with overall consideration have become the key factor promoting China’s economic and social development, scientific and feasible prediction of the population growth trend is of great significance. First based on figures presented in the historical data, this paper first uses Malthus’ model of population growth as reference and establishes the mathematical model 1 about China’s population size and time by adopting the methods of regression and fitting; second through the adaptation of linear multiple regression method to make regression and fitting on the total number of population and the above three factors, a ternary linear regression model 2 is made; finally we find two factors: mortality rate, birth rate have great significance for the number of population, by using multiple regression,　 establishes the model 3.