Applications of computerized stochastic models of human reproduction and population growth in family planning evaluation

Abstract

This paper reports on the results of a computer experiment demonstrating some of the capabilities of computerized versions of a stochastic model of population growth [4] and a stochastic model of human reproduction [5] in family planning evaluation. The paper is divided into five sections, with Sec. 1 being devoted to a discussion of some of the motivations underlying the paper and the limitations of the results. Section 2 contains the numerical specifications of the component distributions of the model, and in Sec. 3 an experimental design is defined whereby the interactions of two alternative family building schemes, late versus early marriage, and low versus high desired family size may be studied with respect to population growth. The experimental design consists of eight reproductive regimes, and in Sec. 4 graphs of the calculated net maternity functions of these regimes together with the corresponding Malthusian parameter, the crude birth rate, and the mean number of female offspring in a completed family are presented. Section 5 is devoted to two population projections designed to measure the impact on population growth of two experimental schemes of transition from a high reproductive regime to a lower one. The indicators of population change and distributions used to measure the impact of these two experimental transitions in reproductive regimes as a function of time in these projections were crude birth rate, annual rate of population growth, age-specific birth rates, age distribution, and mean total population size.