The Strengthened Linkage between ENSO and the Eurasian Pattern since the Late 1980s

Abstract

Abstract The Eurasian (EU) teleconnection pattern is an important atmospheric intrinsic mode over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, and it has strong influence on the weather and climate over Eurasia and remote regions. Investigating factors for the EU variability is crucial and has important implications for regional climate prediction. This study reveals a remarkable influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the EU in early winter and particularly a notable enhancement of this influence since the late 1980s. The results indicate that ENSO can lead to the vertical motion and atmospheric heating anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean, triggering an atmospheric wave train propagating along the subtropical westerly jet and inducing an EU-like pattern over Eurasia in early winter. The interdecadal enhancement of the ENSO impact on the EU after the late 1980s may be attributable to the warming of the background mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Indian Ocean. In particular, ENSO can lead to stronger atmospheric heating and circulation anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean via a strong air–sea interaction due to a warmer background mean SST after the late 1980s. A warmer background mean SST in the tropical Indian Ocean accelerates the subtropical westerly jet due to the thermal-wind balance, which is more favorable for the propagation of the atmospheric wave train forced by the atmospheric heating anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean. The observed mechanisms for the enhanced impact of ENSO on the EU are also validated by numerical experiments. Significance Statement The Eurasian (EU) teleconnection pattern is an important atmospheric internal variability with significant influences on the Eurasian climate. The present study finds a remarkable relationship between the EU and ENSO in early winter, and this connection is significantly enhanced in recent decades. Thus, ENSO may serve as an important precursor signal for predicting the EU. Observational analysis and numerical experiments show that the warmer tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) plays a key role in this enhanced relationship. The warmer TIO may enhance the local air–sea interaction and accelerate the subtropical jet. The ENSO-induced anomalous disturbance over the TIO becomes stronger and can more easily propagate along the subtropical jet, exerting a strong influence on the EU especially after the late 1980s.