Dominant modes of wintertime precipitation variability in northwest China and the association with circulation anomalies and sea surface temperature

Abstract

The dominant modes wintertime precipitation in northwest China (NWC) and the possible causes are investigated during the period 1961–2013 in the inter‐annual timescale, as winter climate condition could greatly affect local economic development and people's lives. The analysis of this study is divided into three parts. First, the spatiotemporal variability of dominant modes wintertime precipitation is described by an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method. The atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with wintertime precipitation variations are then discussed through regression and composite analysis. Third, the relationships between wintertime precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are investigated. The results indicate that the leading mode (EOF1) shows a uniform sign in the entire region, and the second mode (EOF2) exhibits a zonal‐dipole pattern; they account for 25.6 and 15.7% of the total variance, respectively. The atmospheric circulation anomalies EOF1 closely related to is the Eurasian (EU) teleconnection pattern. Years when a negative phase of EU pattern occurs tend to be rainy with anomalous southerly transporting water vapour from low‐latitudes and profound ascending motion anomalies. Atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the second mode resemble the Arctic Oscillation (AO) pattern. AO pattern influences EOF2 precipitation variations through the anomalous circulations over Mongolia and western Europe. The sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies related to EOF1 show an El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) like pattern, which may modulate the wintertime precipitation mode through the western North Pacific anticyclone. The EOF2 mode has a close relationship with a tripole SST anomaly mode in the North Atlantic Ocean. This SST pattern is likely to influence wintertime precipitation by modulating the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The results of this study could be beneficial for wintertime precipitation prediction and the decrease of economic losses in NWC and may also provide useful references for other areas with similar climatic features such as the central Asia.