The Statistical Use of Artifact Distributions to Establish Chronological Sequence

Abstract

AbstractThis paper describes and demonstrates an improved statistical method for determining chronological sequences among archaeological sites. The method, derived from a system of measurement called contextual analysis, depends on the pattern of artifact types present and absent at each site rather than on the relative frequency of occurrence of types. The process of contextual analysis is presented in sufficient detail to provide a guide for other studies.For purposes of demonstration, the chronology of 16 central California burial sites, originally analyzed by Heizer, Fenenga, Lillard and others, and subsequently re-examined by Belous, was again reworked. The results showed an extremely high measure of agreement with Heizer's chronology, a rank order correlation coefficient of .96 being obtained. This high agreement is taken as evidence not only that a purely statistical method of establishing dependable sequences is possible, but also that contextual analysis is a sufficiently sensitive technique to solve the archaeological problem.