The State of the African Demographic Transition, 1990—2016

Abstract

It is indisputable that virtually all human populations are dynamic. This is evident in the underway demographic transitions that account for the dramatic reductions in fertility and mortality rates worldwide, including Africa. Utilizing World Bank data, a descriptive analysis of the demographic transitions in 54 African countries was performed between 1990 and 2016. Patterns and paces of the demographic transitions were examined employing crude birth and death rates as well as total populations. Estimations and comparisons of average levels of fertility and mortality declines between and within regions in Africa were done. Apart from Mauritius, African states were marked by slow-paced, unpredictable, and incomparable demographic transitions. Many countries are stuck between stages 2 and 3, resulting in continued rapid population growth due to incessantly lower crude birth rates decline than crude death rates decline. Higher mortality reductions characterised Central, Eastern and Western African countries whereas Northern and Southern Africa countries were characterised by higher fertility reductions. The study confirmed similarities and differences in the African demographic transitions, with less conformity to the classic demographic transition model. Country focused assessments and research on the demographic transition are needed to inform appropriate population programmes and policies in Africa.