The spread dynamics model of the interaction between rumors and derivative rumors in emergencies under the control strategy

Abstract

Emergencies are usually accompanied by rumors, which are intertwined with each other and cause interactive effects, leading to crisis escalation and “secondary disasters”. How to control and weaken such an effect is a very important topic in the field of spread dynamics. In this paper, we consider the interaction between rumors and derivative rumors, introduce the IC control strategy, construct the SIDR-SIR model of a two-stage multistate transfer based on heterogeneous networks, and set up the transfer process of 9 states in the first stage and 12 states in the second stage of the model. Furthermore, the two-stage mean field equation of the model in heterogeneous networks is given, and the critical conditions of the spread are derived. Finally, the effects of the interaction and the control strategies between two rumors spreading are studied by numerical simulation. The results show that rumors with the mutual promotion will have a wider propagation scale under the impact of the interaction, and the control of one rumor, either by the earlier timing of the introduction of the control strategy or by the greater control strength, will play an inhibitory role in the spread of the other rumor. Different control measures have different effects on rumor governance. Increasing the proportion of the government isolating the initial rumor and converting the public into rumor debunkers for initial rumors and increasing government clarification for derivative rumors will both have better governance effects. This work provides a reference for the government of rumors and derivative rumors in emergencies.