The spatiotemporal patterns and pathways of forest transition in China

Abstract

AbstractChina experienced a shift from net forest losses to gains (forest transition) between 1976 and 1981. Such transition has increased timber volume in natural forests and expanded the provision of forests ecosystem services. However, the timing, magnitude, and impact of the forest transition varied at provincial scales due to heterogeneous socio‐economic and institutional conditions. The aim of this study is to quantify the impact of spatial drivers of forest transition in China through integrated comparative and spatial regression methods. This approach allows the documentation of feedbacks and interactions of theoretical pathways to forest transition at different geographical scales, which is of relevance for large‐scale land restoration efforts. Our analysis also accounts for changes in forest volumes, a parameter that is usually not studied in the forest transition literature. Here, we used key indicators of demographic, economic, agricultural, and urbanization processes coupled with forest area data to investigate factors influencing forest transitions at multiple geographic scales between 1973 and 2013. Stepwise and geographically weighted regression models were adapted to quantify the key drivers' integrated and distributed magnitude effects on forest transition patterns, respectively. We assessed changes across forest types (i.e., primary and secondary forests, plantation forests) and investigated pathways to forest transition at provincial scales. The results indicate that increasing demand for timber and other forest ecosystem services, rising gross domestic product and population, forest policy, and increasing employment in the industry and service sectors generated multiple pathways to forest transition. The impact of those drivers varied within provinces, and some transition pathways were more relevant than others at sub‐national scales. Despite the Country scale shift to net forest gains, the loss of natural forests continued in some provinces (e.g., Guangdong, Guangxi) until recent years. The loss of ecosystem services from mature forests offset some of the benefits of China's forest transition. Coordinated forest management strategies across political jurisdictions could speed up the path to net forest gains, reduce trade‐offs of forest transitions processes, and achieve sustainable afforestation processes. Such an effort could have significant contributions to the preservation and increase of key forest ecosystem services for the Country and the world.