Abstract
BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) remains a major public health burden in many developing countries. China alone accounted for an estimated 12% of all incident TB cases worldwide in 2010. Several studies showed that the spatial distribution of TB was nonrandom and clustered. Thus, a spatial analysis was conducted with the aim to explore the spatial epidemiology of TB in Linyi City, which can provide guidance for formulating regional prevention and control strategies.MethodsThe study was based on the reported cases of TB, between 2005 and 2010. 35,308 TB cases were geo-coded at the town level (n = 180). The spatial empirical Bayes smoothing, spatial autocorrelation and space-time scan statistic were used in this analysis.ResultsSpatial distribution of TB in Linyi City from 2005 to 2010 was mapped at town level in the aspects of crude incidence, excess hazard and spatial smoothed incidence. The spatial distribution of TB was nonrandom and clustered with the significant Moran’s I for each year. Local Gi* detected five significant spatial clusters for high incidence of TB. The space-time analysis identified one most likely cluster and nine secondary clusters for high incidence of TB.ConclusionsThere is evidence for the existence of statistically significant TB clusters in Linyi City, China. The result of this study may assist health departments to develop a better preventive strategy and increase the public health intervention’s effectiveness.
Highlights
Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major public health burden in many developing countries
Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease caused by the bacillus Mycobacterium tuberculosis, which is still a leading cause of death in low-income and middleincome countries, and remains a major public health burden in many developing countries [1]
Geographical information systems (GIS) and spatial analysis were frequently used to describe the pattern of TB
Summary
Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major public health burden in many developing countries. China alone accounted for an estimated 12% of all incident TB cases worldwide in 2010. A spatial analysis was conducted with the aim to explore the spatial epidemiology of TB in Linyi City, which can provide guidance for formulating regional prevention and control strategies. China (0.9 million-1.2 million) alone accounted for an estimated 12% of all incident TB cases worldwide in 2010 [2]. Linyi City is one of the high-incidence areas in China, and there is an estimated 6,000 reported cases every year from 2005–2010. In India, purely spatial and retrospective space-time analysis were used to find guidance for formulating regional prevention and control strategies [9,10]
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