Abstract

The solar cycle is reviewed. The 11-year cycle of solar activity is characterized by the rise and fall in the numbers and surface area of sunspots. A number of other solar activity indicators also vary in association with the sunspots including; the 10.7 cm radio flux, the total solar irradiance, the magnetic field, flares and coronal mass ejections, geomagnetic activity, galactic cosmic ray fluxes, and radioisotopes in tree rings and ice cores. Individual solar cycles are characterized by their maxima and minima, cycle periods and amplitudes, cycle shape, the equatorward drift of the active latitudes, hemispheric asymmetries, and active longitudes. Cycle-to-cycle variability includes the Maunder Minimum, the Gleissberg Cycle, and the Gnevyshev-Ohl (even-odd) Rule. Short-term variability includes the 154-day periodicity, quasi-biennial variations, and double-peaked maxima. We conclude with an examination of prediction techniques for the solar cycle and a closer look at cycles 23 and 24.Electronic Supplementary MaterialSupplementary material is available for this article at 10.1007/lrsp-2015-4.

Highlights

  • Solar activity rises and falls with an 11-year cycle that affects modern life in many ways

  • In that year Heinrich Schwabe reported in Astronomische Nachrichten (Schwabe, 1844) that his observations of the numbers of sunspot groups and spotless days over the previous 18 years indicated the presence of a cycle of activity with a period of about 10 years

  • The Boulder Sunspot Number is derived from the daily Solar Region Summaries (NOAA/SRS) produced by the US Air Force and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (USAF/NOAA) from sunspot drawings obtained from the Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON) sites since 1977

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Summary

Introduction

Solar activity rises and falls with an 11-year cycle that affects modern life in many ways. The observed latitudinal differential rotation should take this weak poloidal field and shear it out to produce a much stronger toroidal field wrapped around the Sun nearly parallel to lines of latitude Babcock noted that this toroidal field becomes strongest at latitudes near 30° where the shear is strongest (and where sunspots first appear at the start of each cycle). In Babcock’s model the toroidal field is not directed purely east-west along lines of latitude, but retains a small north-south component from the original poloidal field This gives a slight tilt to the emerging active regions (the alpha-effect) with the following (relative to the direction of rotation) polarity sunspots in a group at slightly higher latitudes. One can only hope that, with frequent observations of periodic motion of space objects, that time will show how to examine in which way astronomical bodies that are driven and lit up by the Sun are influenced by sunspots. (Wolf, 1877a, translation by Elke Willenberg)

Schwabe’s discovery
Wolf ’s relative sunspot number
Wolf ’s reconstruction of earlier data
Sunspot numbers
Revised sunspot numbers
Sunspot areas
Total irradiance
Magnetic field
Ephemeral regions
Flares and coronal mass ejections
Geomagnetic activity
3.10 Cosmic rays
3.11 Radioisotopes in tree rings and ice cores
Minima and maxima
Smoothing
Cycle periods
Cycle amplitudes
Cycle shape
Double peaks – the Gnevyshev Gap
4.10 Active latitudes – Sporer’s Law
4.11 Active hemispheres
4.12 Active longitudes
4.13 Active region tilt – Joy’s Law
4.14 The extended solar cycle
The Maunder Minimum
The secular trend
The Gleissberg Cycle
Long-term variations from radioisotope studies
The Suess cycle
Quasi-biennial variations and double-peaked maxima
Predicting an ongoing cycle
Predicting future cycle amplitudes based on cycle statistics
Predicting future cycle amplitudes based on geomagnetic precursors
Prediction Method
Predicting future cycle amplitudes based on polar fields
Predicting future cycle amplitudes based on flux transport dynamos
The Livingston–Penn Effect
Sunspot size distributions
Flow variations
Findings
Conclusions
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