The socioeconomic impact of severe droughts on agricultural lands over different provinces of Iran

Abstract

The lack of rainfall is the primary cause of drought, reduced crop harvest (CH), and socioeconomic drought. Agriculture is the primary source of income for most Iranians, and drought can harm people's lives irreparably. This study examines the changes in the CHs and crop prices (CPs) across provinces of Iran during the most severe drought of all time in Iran and its impact on producers (farmers), consumers, and public prosperity using the Surplus Economic Method (SEM). Our study focused on crops that have a big impact on Iranian life, such as wheat, barley, potato, onion, tomato, lentils, chickpeas, and alfalfa. Our results indicated that Iran's most severe hydrological drought occurred from 2000 to 2002. The rainfed farms experienced the most pronounced changes in terms of CH, while financial damages were the highest in irrigated areas. Among the crops investigated, rainfed wheat has experienced the greatest reduction of 80%. Moreover, grains have the greatest price change (40% increase) during the hydrological drought. Wheat underwent the steepest CH reduction. Legumes experienced the steepest price rise. During the drought, most crops had lower yields, causing losses for consumers, but some producers still made a profit. The drought affected northwest and west Iran farmers adversely, but southern and central Iran farmers gained from the drought through increased product prices. Drought has had adverse effects on the public prosperity for most of the examined crops and reduced it. The greatest reduction corresponds to barley in the western regions and the Zagros Mountains. The diversity of crops in northwestern and western Iran has made these regions the most important areas for farming and crop supply in Iran. Agricultural droughts in these regions can affect the lives of all Iranian people and lead to socioeconomic drought in Iran. Our study demonstrated that hydrological droughts in northwestern and western areas of Iran are chiefly caused by the shortage of winter and spring rains. Moreover, Identifying the primary factors of hydrological drought showed that the hydrological drought is most affected by the depth of snow during winter. Additionally, the data analysis revealed that the combined effect of winter precipitation with snow depth and snow depth with snow coverage has the highest impact on hydrological drought (61%). The results can make farming policies based on the region and climate, marketing plans for droughts, and solutions to address the harmful effects of drought.