Assessing Socioeconomic Drought Based on a Standardized Supply and Demand Water Index

Abstract

Socioeconomic drought occurs when a water shortage is caused by an imbalance between the supply and demand of water resources in natural and human socioeconomic systems. Compared with meteorological drought, hydrological drought, and agricultural drought, socioeconomic drought has received relatively little attention. Hence, this study aims to construct a universal and relatively simple socioeconomic drought assessment index, the Standardized Supply and Demand Water Index (SSDWI). Taking the Jianjiang River Basin (JJRB) in Guangdong Province, China, as an example, we analyzed the socioeconomic drought characteristics and trends from 1985 to 2019. The return periods of different levels of drought were calculated. The relationships among socioeconomic, meteorological, and hydrological droughts and their potential drivers were discussed. Results showed that: (1) SSDWI can assess the socioeconomic drought conditions well at the basin scale. Based on the SSWDI, during the 35-year study period, 29 socioeconomic droughts occurred in the basin, with an average duration of 6.16 months and average severity of 5.82. Socioeconomic droughts mainly occurred in autumn and winter, which also had more severe droughts than other seasons. (2) In the JJRB, the joint return periods of “∪” and “∩” for moderate drought, severe drought, and extreme drought were 8.81a and 10.81a, 16.49a and 26.44a, and 41.68a and 91.13a, respectively. (3) Because of the increasing outflow from Gaozhou Reservoir, the occurrence probability of socioeconomic drought and hydrological drought in the JJRB has declined significantly since 2008. Reservoir scheduling helps alleviate hydrological and socioeconomic drought in the basin.