The simulation of complete 11 and 12 year modulation cycles for cosmic rays in the heliosphere using a drift model with global merged interaction regions

Abstract

Two-dimensional, time-dependent drift models have done exceptionally well in explaining major modulation features, especially during the A less than 0 magnetic polarity cycle of the heliospheric magnetic field when positively charge particles are drifting in along the heliospheric neutral sheet (HNS). These models were found to do well when the heliospheric 'tilt angles' alpha less than approximately 30 deg (le Roux & Potgeiter). However, they seem to do less well when alpha greater than approximately 30 deg during A less than 0 cycles seem to fail when this happens in A greater than 0 cycles. Progress was made in understanding these phases of the modulation cycle when merged interaction regions (MIRs) were incorporated in time-dependent drift models (Potgieter et al.). It was also explicitly shown that in obtaining large step decreases in cosmic rays, the MIRs had to be global, i.e., having a latitudinal extent of more than approximately 60 deg. Other classes of MIRs, such as local MIRs and co-rotating MIRs were found to be of secondary importance for establishing long-term modulation. In a previous paper we studied the effects of two consecutive, identical global MIRs, together with a changing wavy HNS, on long-term modulation (Potegieter & le Roux). This approach gave a very natural and convincing explanation for the observed step decreases in cosmic-ray modulation. Emphasis was placed in the declining and recovery phases of the 11 yr modulation cycle. In this paper, four consecutive, nonidentical global MIRs, in combination with a varying wavy HNS, were included in our time-dependent drift model in order to do simulations closer to what was observed between 1977 and 1987. By doing this we could model, for the first time, complete 11 and 22 yr cycles in the heliospheric modulation of galactic cosmic-rays, including the solar magnetic polarity reversals.